At first glance, when compared to YOY sales, Carmex sales did not appear to respond to television as predictive modeling had indicated.
An o.c.e.a.n. factor data deep dive was applied that led to greater insight.
With television spending up +90% in the lip balm segment, Carmex still held the 2nd position in share of voice. Further analysis indicated a decline in trade promotional activity vs. YAG and an ACV review comparison of 4Q 2013 vs. 2014 scanned items highlighted the confirmation in trading of space (-11% change lip balm distribution) for the inclusion of Carma's new item "Cold Sore". Floor displays that were experienced YAG missed hitting stores in time to meet the television activity.
Distribution and trade promotion factors adjusted, it was determined that amidst a noisy category, television advertising lifted Carmex lip balm sales an average of +17% within the first 4 week flight, before considering sales from units inside floor display items.
This invaluable insight, adjusting actual vs. expected, placed Carmex sales second in category behind Burt's Bees top position (who experienced a +38% distribution change). As EOS lip balm distribution was up +58% (verses Carmex -11%) we recognized diminishing returns at a -32% for the EOS "lifestyle" brand.
The o.c.e.a.n. factor highlighted...
1. measurable sales: a need to showcase retailers actual sales vs. expected (considering distribution and promotion factors).
2. sales assist: increase distribution-- retailers would benefit from reducing EOS distribution and increasing Carmex.
3. purchase intent: sales response for Carmex lip balm vs. Carmex cold sore. When lip balm aired, only lip balm sales were stimulated. When cold sore aired, both lip balm and cold sore sales were stimulated. The findings pointed toward heghtened perception of efficacy for the brand as a whole when promoting the new cold sore product.
4. Jan. 1st 2015- Feb. 1st 2015, a low point in category sales, the o.c.e.a.n. factor illustrated sales response for Carmex +10% vs. competitors who were advertising at the same time, experiencing only +2%. Once Carmex ceased its TV efforts, Carmex sales slid -4%, while those still advertising lifted +6%.
Lip Balm Rankings adjusted with marketplace (distribution):
#1 Burt's Bees, 10%
#2 Carmex Lip Balm, 7%
#3 Blistek, -3%
#4 Chapstick, -7%
#5 EOS, -32%
With distribution and promotion adjustments addressed, staying the course of television, Carmex will experience significant impact in the upcoming 2015-2016 season vs. YAG of decreased distribution and promotion within marketplace.